THE SLEEPER ISSUE? – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:   It may be that the sleeper issue in 2016 is law-and-order.  From Ed Rogers at WaPo:

While the media are captivated by other things, a sleeper issue may be beginning to stir, and it may have a meaningful impact on the 2016 elections. That is, crime. As a Post editorial points out, we can’t be totally sure yet if the rises in crime rates this year are “the beginning of unsettling trends or mere blips.” But it is well documented that there has been a recent spike in crime. Murders in the District are up nearly 30 percent from last year. And Heather Mac Donald wrote an eye-opening article in May in the Wall Street Journal detailing “The New Nationwide Crime Wave” and examining the “Ferguson effect” on our country.

But after decades of decline in crime rates, why is this happening — if this is, as it seems, the start of a long-term trend? In Baltimore, the scene of riots this year after the death of Freddie Gray, robberies and homicides are up, partly due to “a sharp reduction in arrests . . . as the police union said many officers were afraid to do their jobs for fear of being prosecuted.” At least some of the increase in crime may be the result of the Black Lives Matter group — and their sympathizers — intimidating Democratic political leaders at the national, state and local levels into, essentially, becoming more lenient on crime. At the same time, the group and its message are demoralizing our nation’s police forces, who are now facing rules and restrictions that are sometimes inconsistent with the lessons learned and with the reality on the ground. The anti-police attitude that has become so pervasive is eroding the effectiveness of America’s police officers, and the crime statistics reflect that.

The Democrats clearly have not thought through the ramifications of giving Black Lives Matter and their apologists an open platform and demonizing law enforcement for doing its job. Part of this new message the Democrats are adopting is essentially a call to allow more criminals to roam free. What happens when the crime levels get worse? This could become a much bigger issue on the campaign trail, and it could put Democrats in a position where they are once again viewed as the party least sympathetic to law and order.

COMMENT:  New York City has its first Democratic mayor in two decades, and he is becoming intensely unpopular because he's seen as soft on crime.  The crime issue is a major opening for Republicans, if they know how to use it effectively.  Big if.

August 27, 2015